As tax season unfolds, early data from the IRS indicates that Americans are receiving significantly smaller tax refunds compared to last year. According to the latest update from the IRS, the average tax refund as of February 14, 2025, stood at $2,169—about 32% lower than the $3,207 average refund issued at the same time in 2024.

The IRS began accepting tax returns on January 27 and will continue processing them until April 15, except for taxpayers who request an extension. While the early numbers suggest a steep decline in refunds, experts caution that individual refunds can vary widely. Lower- and middle-income workers, who often have simpler tax filings, typically submit their returns earlier in the season, while higher-income earners and those with more complex filings tend to wait until closer to the deadline.

“Many employees who only receive a W-2 tend to have smaller refunds or owe smaller amounts because of tax withholdings through their jobs,” said Keith Hall, CPA and CEO of the National Association for the Self-Employed (NASE). He also noted that some small business owners are receiving financial tax forms, such as brokerage statements or dividend reports, later than usual, causing delays in their filing process.

IRS data also shows that fewer Americans have submitted their returns in the first few weeks of the 2025 tax season compared to last year. As of February 14, approximately 33 million tax returns had been filed—a 5% decline from the same period in 2024. However, the agency anticipates that filings will “level out in future weeks” as the April deadline approaches.

When Will Taxpayers Receive Their Refunds?

Tax experts recommend filing as soon as possible to receive refunds more quickly. Concerns over potential IRS processing delays—partly due to job cuts ordered during the Trump administration—have prompted additional urgency in filing early this year.

According to the IRS, most refunds are issued within 21 calendar days for those who file electronically. However, taxpayers who submit paper returns should expect longer processing times, as human IRS agents must manually handle those submissions.

Taxpayers can track their 2025 refund status using the IRS’ “Where’s My Refund?” tool. Those who e-file can check their refund status within 24 hours of submission, while paper filers must wait four weeks after mailing their return before checking their refund status.

A recent survey by the National Retail Federation found that about half of Americans plan to file their taxes by the end of February, while the remaining half expect to file in March and April. Additionally, around 50% of taxpayers anticipate receiving a refund this year.

As tax season progresses, refund amounts and filing patterns are expected to shift, but early trends indicate a notable difference from previous years.